President to let Russia and Ukraine lead their own negotiations before a potential trilateral summit
Donald Trump is taking a step back from directly brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, opting instead to let the two nations organize their own high-level meeting, according to several senior administration officials. This shift marks a more cautious and less direct approach than the one he championed during his campaign, where he vowed to end the war in 24 hours.
The president's new strategy, as conveyed to his closest advisors, centers on the belief that a successful trilateral summit with himself, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy can only happen after Putin and Zelenskyy have met on their own terms. Trump feels that a bilateral meeting between the two leaders is a necessary first step to gauge the seriousness of their commitment to a peace agreement.
A senior White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the new strategy as a "wait-and-see" approach. "The president believes that for any peace deal to stick, it has to come from the leaders themselves," the official said. "He's not walking away from the issue, but he's giving them space to find common ground. He believes a top-down approach from him at this stage might be counterproductive."
This pivot comes as Trump acknowledges the complexity of the conflict. His initial promise to end the war in a single day has been proven to be more challenging than anticipated. Since his self-imposed deadline to end the war passed this month, he has been pushing for a rapid resolution. However, the lack of progress on a tangible meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy has led him to reassess his personal involvement.
In a recent telephone interview, Trump affirmed this new position. "I think it's better if they meet first," he said. "I want to see what happens when they sit down and talk without me. They're trying to set that up, and we'll see where it goes. My role is to be there to help with the final touches, but they have to want it first."
The Road to a Bilateral Meeting
Despite the apparent shift in strategy, the path toward a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting remains unclear. The White House has not yet released a shortlist of potential venues, and there have been few public signs of tangible progress. A statement from the White House confirmed that "Trump and his national security team continue to engage with Russian and Ukrainian officials toward a bilateral meeting to stop the killing and end the war." The statement also noted that "it is not in the national interest to further negotiate these issues publicly."
Following his recent meetings with Zelenskyy and other European leaders, Trump held a lengthy call with Putin. Sources indicate the conversation, which lasted approximately 40 minutes, was productive. According to Yuri Ushakov, a Russian foreign policy aide, the two leaders agreed to appoint more senior negotiators to engage in direct talks between Russia and Ukraine. This agreement, while a step forward, also suggests that a high-level meeting between the two heads of state could still be some way off.
This cautious progress comes even as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed optimism that a meeting could happen within two weeks. This optimism, however, is tempered by Putin's history of rejecting previous attempts by Zelenskyy to meet face-to-face since the war began.
Security Guarantees: A Sticking Point
One of the central issues in any future peace agreement is the question of security guarantees for Ukraine. During his recent meetings at the White House, Zelenskyy stressed the need for ironclad guarantees to ensure that Russia does not resume its invasion after a peace deal is signed. These guarantees are at the heart of Ukraine's demand for long-term stability and are a key reason for its previous desire to join NATO.
Trump has offered to contribute to these security guarantees, but he has been firm in his refusal to deploy US troops to the ground in Ukraine. Any American assistance is expected to come in the form of intelligence sharing or, potentially, US air support.
A significant point of contention revolves around the nature of these guarantees. Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, previously suggested that Putin had agreed to the US offering a security guarantee that resembled NATO's Article 5 collective self-defense mandate. Article 5 is a cornerstone of the NATO treaty, stating that an attack on one member is an attack on all. While Putin's alleged concession was a major breakthrough, its reality may be more complicated.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has proposed that Russia itself should be one of the security guarantors for Ukraine. This proposal has been met with skepticism and outright scoffing by White House officials, who view the idea of the aggressor also being the guarantor as deeply flawed. Lavrov’s comments indicate a different perspective on the matter. "The Ukrainian side proposed, and our delegation at that time agreed, to work out security guarantees that would involve all permanent members of the UN Security Council—that is, Russia, the People’s Republic of China, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom," Lavrov said.
This Russian position highlights the deep distrust between the two nations and the difficulty of finding a mutually acceptable framework for peace.
The Economic Angle
During his White House visit, Zelenskyy also outlined a plan to purchase $90 billion worth of American weapons through Europe as part of a security guarantees deal. He also proposed a reciprocal arrangement where the US would buy drones from Ukraine. It remains unclear whether this plan is part of a larger weapons package Trump announced last month or a separate proposal. The economic and military dimensions of any future agreement are intertwined with the political and security aspects, making negotiations even more complex.
The shift in Trump's strategy from a hands-on mediator to a more distant facilitator signals a recognition of the immense challenges ahead. By allowing Russia and Ukraine to take the lead, he is placing the onus on them to demonstrate a genuine commitment to peace. Whether this new approach will yield the results he desires remains to be seen. For now, the world watches and waits, as the two nations navigate the difficult path toward a potential meeting, a crucial first step on the long road to ending the conflict.
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